Oscar Talk: Nomination Eve

Writers Andreas Stoehr and Russell Hainline discuss the Academy Awards in anticipation of tomorrow’s nomination announcements.

Andreas: It’s here! The Christmas Eve of Oscar season is here, that most magical and meaningless night of the moviegoing year. It’s a season when anything substantive about a movie is eclipsed by that intangible quality called “buzz”; when a whole year of filmmaking is condensed into a mixed bag of titles with a glitzy little bow on top. It’s awful. It’s fun. Well, for me anyway. Today and tomorrow, I’ll be indulging the beast (i.e. the Oscars) by way of a conversation with fellow Movie Mezzanine writer Russell Hainline. I know I’ve got a few lingering questions bouncing around my head today—how many Best Picture nominees? Will any of Django’s supporting actors nab a nomination?—as well as that omnipresent meta-question, “Why oh why do I give a fuck?” I think the myopia imposed by Oscar season is borderline evil, yet still I follow each race and argue their particulars. So, Russell: Which categories will you have your eye on tomorrow morning? And what’s your relationship with this month-long critical Bizarro World?

Russell: Firmly committed. I am happily married to awards season, even if it’s occasionally a rocky relationship. I realize that it’s far hipper to be above it all, but there are serious stakes to the Oscars every year. The films that get nominated will be more viewed than those that aren’t; those that win will be even more widely seen. If people care about studio films and wide releases improving in quality, then nominations and wins for the highest quality films possible is of the utmost importance. Think about how a filmmaker like Ava DuVernay would benefit from her film receiving a single nomination. That’s why I love awards season: many strong filmmakers and actors get the exposure they deserve, from nominations to wins. Even when the winners aren’t my preferences, they are so rarely bad.

This year, with the field so spread out and so many films audiences are passionate about, I would be stunned to see fewer than eight nominations, and I really wouldn’t be shocked by nine or even ten. Movies like Life of Pi, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, or possibly even Moonrise Kingdom are perfect examples of films unlikely to make a five-nominee field, but they are easy to champion: unique visions and worlds executed with notable skill. In regards to Django supporting nominations, while one sneaking onto the ballot wouldn’t be a surprise, I think it’s more likely that everyone misses—classic case of splitting the vote.

In the above-the-line categories, I have my eye on a few developments. I’m most intrigued by Beasts of the Southern Wild’s chances. Normally, a film’s SAG nominations would be a strong indicator of its chances at the big dance, but with Beasts’ ineligibility for the SAGs, its omission from the SAG ballot means nothing. It certainly seems to have less “heat” on its side, since a lack of nominations means a lack of discussion, but Best Picture and Best Actress have seemed within reach all season long. I see no reason for that to change now. The biggest surprise (that I’m praying for) would be Dwight Henry popping into the Supporting Actor category: it’s a crowded arena with many heavy hitters in play, but Henry’s performance is outstanding and his real-life story is beyond incredible—he’s not even an actor! He’s a baker! I for one would love to see Henry cook up a nomination.

I’m also keeping an eye on Best Actress, where one or two marvelous French language performances—Marion Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva—seem vulnerable to dropping off the ballot. If Helen Mirren knocks one off for Hitchcock, then I may be tempted to go Norman Bates.  Your most intriguing races, Andreas? Which plausible contenders lingering on the outside are you rooting to sneak on the ballot? Most importantly, SWEET JESUS, PLEASE TELL ME THAT DWIGHT HENRY WILL MAKE IT.

Andreas: I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but… I really don’t see it. Which speaks to one of the Oscars’ intrinsic agonies: no matter how high a performance’s worth, no matter how deeply you love it, it can always get squashed by politics. You spoke of the Best Actress race, and that’s where I’m about to experience my greatest Oscar-related heartbreak. They’ll read off five names tomorrow morning and lo, Rachel Weisz will be nowhere among them. Yes, I know I should have given up hope long ago. The Deep Blue Sea is a small movie, released all the way back in March, from a director who’s never passed within kilometers of the Academy. But then, goddammit, she had to go and garner attention from the NYFCC and Golden Globes. Hope stirred in my heart! And that hope will be crushed tomorrow, if Cotillard or Naomi Watts have anything to say about it. (That said, Watts’ work in Mulholland Drive earned her a lifetime pass from me, so I won’t gripe too much if she’s on the list.)

My sob story has a couple silver linings, however. (Ones in which, I must note, David O. Russell plays no part.) Maybe, just maybe, whether through divine intervention or some online voting clusterfuck, Weisz will be nominated. Maybe Dwight Henry will, too! Such boons are statistically rare by definition, but it makes me giddy when they strike, as if all that bated-breath anticipation was truly worthwhile. It’s near-pathological, really, like the periodic wins that a gambling addict needs in order to keep wasting quarters. But, like I said above, it’s “fun.” The other possibility, meanwhile, exists independently of voters or statistics, and it’s infinitely more rewarding for us viewers: maybe Weisz and Henry’s work will endure. Unlike a nomination, this might not visibly benefit their careers or endow them with gold-laureled prestige—and I agree with you, granting exposure to deserving recipients is the Oscars’ noblest function. But I nonetheless take pleasure in knowing that years from now, I’ll still be rewatching many of the movies Oscar “snubbed.” I don’t expect to see Paul Thomas Anderson pop up in the Best Director category tomorrow, but I still think The Master will be revered as a classic long after the name “Tom Hooper” has faded into the mists of time.

Same goes for Joaquin Phoenix’s animalistic performance in said film, especially since he’s one of tomorrow’s very possible (and very unjust) snubs. Of course, I don’t know why I bother to invoke the concept of justice here; I’m talking about an awards show! But, hey, that’s the level of emotional investment the Oscars elicit from me. I read a story like that of Ann Dowd—a gifted character actress in an off-the-radar indie who’s breaking the bank campaigning for a nomination—and I get hooked. It’s audience identification, the same phenomenon that sucks me into movies, sucking me into awards season narratives. I think that phenomenon also helps explain why, so far, our conversation hasn’t touched on any below-the-line categories. Their collective “narrative” is largely invisible, tethered to each film’s broader awards success. With acting, we can latch onto an onscreen face, and often one with star power. It also doesn’t help that I’m clueless as to what the Oscars consider technical merit.  Have any below-the-line narratives hooked you this year, Russell? And who do you fear (or hope) will be narrowly snubbed tomorrow?

Russell: There’s only one credible below-the-line narrative for me, and it will carry from now until the envelope is opened: will Roger Deakins finally win the Best Cinematography Oscar for which he is criminally overdue? All of my other below-the-liners are simply pipe dreams: either completely unrealistic fantasies—”Yo No Se” from Casa de mi Padre for Best Original Song, please!—or they were eliminated by the shortlists, like Holy Motors for Best Makeup and ParaNorman or Sound of Noise for Best Original Score.

Another pipe dream is a vengeful prayer for below-the-line snubbery: I would love to see The Dark Knight Rises absolutely shut out of the sound categories in particular. Loud doesn’t equal good, and the trilogy ender was a headache-inducing series of cacophonic explosions, screeches, and Zimmer booms.

Most of the time, when examining potential snubs, it’s more fun to take a schadenfreude perspective. It helps tilt the scales back from all of the grave injustices that your beloved ideal choices have suffered. The two biggest snubs I envision are from a movie I didn’t much care for, Silver Linings Playbook. While David O. Russell missing for Best Director wouldn’t exactly blow people’s minds (no DGA nomination), I’ve been feeling ever since Django Unchained’s release that Robert De Niro isn’t as safe in the Best Supporting Actor category as folks make him out to be. Outside of one crying scene, that part doesn’t really give him much to do, save rub a handkerchief and act typically De Niro-ish. This isn’t to diminish the affection the Academy has and will show for Silver Linings Playbook in a number of categories. But, to bring this piece full circle to some degree, if you see Django Unchained pop up more than once on that nominee list, De Niro might be at home giving his TV the Untouchables treatment.

Although the nominations inevitably hurt the idealist in all of us, and although Phoenix’s snub seems sadly inevitable as well, the victories more than soothe the pain. Cross fingers for Dwight Henry, Emmanuelle Riva, Rachel Weisz, Rian Johnson, and Stephen Chbosky. Any underdog nominations would be a much-appreciated anniversary gift in this ongoing awards season marriage.

To further whet your palate, here is my complete list of nomination predictions. Please do not run to Vegas with these, as certain categories (in particular, documentary, foreign film, and the sound categories) escape my all-seeing eye year after year.

Best Picture:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Best Director:
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay:
Amour
Django Unchained
Looper
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Animated Feature:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-it-Ralph

Best Cinematography:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Editing:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Costumes:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror

Best Foreign Film
Amour
The Deep
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
A Royal Affair

Best Makeup:
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Production Design:
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Prometheus
Skyfall

Best Score:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Sound Editing:
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing:
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark thirty

Best Visual Effects:
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Skyfall